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TOPIC: Climate change


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A leading climate scientist has presented new research findings on the increasing potential for a 4 degrees Celsius rise in global temperatures if the current high emissions of greenhouse gases continue.
The conference at Oxford University is the first to consider the global consequences of climate change beyond 2 degrees Celsius, and is jointly sponsored by Universitys Environmental Change Institute, the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research and the Met Office Hadley Centre.

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Greenland and parts of Antarctica are losing large volumes of ice to the oceans as their glaciers get thinner, a Nasa satellite has revealed.
Many glaciers have increased their flow rates in recent years, and the Icesat mission now allows scientists to measure their thickness in detail.
A UK team studying the data told the journal Nature that the findings had implications for future sea-level rise.
A full melt of the Greenland ice would push sea level up by about 7m.


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Lasers from space show thinning of Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets
The most comprehensive picture of the rapidly thinning glaciers along the coastline of both the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets has been created using satellite lasers. The findings are an important step forward in the quest to make more accurate predictions for future sea level rise.

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Study Reveals Dynamic Wisconsin Climate, Past and Future
If the future scenarios being churned out by the worlds most sophisticated computer climate models are on the mark, big changes are in store for Wisconsins weather during the next century.
Using a realistic estimate of future global carbon emissions, University of Wisconsin-Madison scientists are forecasting significantly warmer winters, altered patterns of precipitation and more severe weather events for the Badger state.

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New 'hockey stick' graph on climate change under fire

A number of readers wrote in to express surprise at the recent letter from the US scientist Dr Michael Mann claiming that his famous "hockey stick" graph, showing temperatures having suddenly soared at the end of the 20th century to unprecedented levels, had been endorsed by the US National Academy of Sciences. Neither of the two Congressional inquiries involving the NAS did anything of the kind. Both found that the computer model used to create Dr Mann's "hockey stick", completely rewriting climate history, was fundamentally flawed.
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Scientists are to outline dramatic evidence that global warming threatens the planet in a new and unexpected way - by triggering earthquakes, tsunamis, avalanches and volcanic eruptions.
Reports by international groups of researchers show that climate change, caused by rising outputs of carbon dioxide from vehicles, factories and power stations, will not only affect the atmosphere and the sea but will alter the geology of the Earth.


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Title: How will Earth's surface temperature change in future decades?
Authors: Judith L. Lean, David H. Rind

Reliable forecasts of climate change in the immediate future are difficult, especially on regional scales, where natural climate variations may amplify or mitigate anthropogenic warming in ways that numerical models capture poorly. By decomposing recent observed surface temperatures into components associated with ENSO, volcanic and solar activity, and anthropogenic influences, we anticipate global and regional changes in the next two decades. From 2009 to 2014, projected rises in anthropogenic influences and solar irradiance will increase global surface temperature 0.15 0.03C, at a rate 50% greater than predicted by IPCC. But as a result of declining solar activity in the subsequent five years, average temperature in 2019 is only 0.03 0.01C warmer than in 2014. This lack of overall warming is analogous to the period from 2002 to 2008 when decreasing solar irradiance also countered much of the anthropogenic warming. We further illustrate how a major volcanic eruption and a super ENSO would modify our global and regional temperature projections.

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Arctic 'warmest in 2,000 years'
Arctic temperatures are now higher than at any time in the last 2,000 years, research reveals.
Changes to the Earth's orbit drove centuries of cooling, but temperatures rose fast in the last 100 years as human greenhouse gas emissions rose.


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-- Edited by Blobrana on Thursday 3rd of September 2009 08:55:41 PM

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Increasing Antarctic Sea Ice Extent Linked to the Ozone Hole
Increased growth in Antarctic sea ice during the past 30 years is a result of changing weather patterns caused by the ozone hole, according to new research. Scientists from BAS and NASA say that while there has been a dramatic loss of Arctic sea ice, Antarctic sea ice has increased by a small amount as a result of the ozone hole delaying the impact of greenhouse gas increases on the climate of the continent.

Source British Antarctic Survey

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Sunspots linked to Pacific rain
A study has shown how sunspots could affect climate in the Pacific.
Writing in the journal Science, the international team detailed how the 11-year sunspot cycle might influence the amount of rain falling on the ocean.
It is hoped the findings will lead to better models for regional climate predictions.


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