Tropical Cyclone Fanele is forecast to make landfall in Madagascar probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 21 hours probability for TS is 75% in about 21 hours
Morombe (21.8 S, 43.4 E) probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 21 hours probability for TS is 75% in about 21 hours
On January 17, the JTWC identified a rapidly organising tropical low just of the coast of Madagascar, near Antananarivo, in the Mozambique Channel. The system showed signs of a quickly developing surface low, and evidence of an upper-level Anticyclone creating a favourable environment for the system. Later that day, the JTWC assessed the possibility of the system becoming a tropical cyclone in 24 hours as Poor. As the system continued to organise, the JTWC issued a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert early the next morning. Soon afterward, the RSMC La Reunion designated the system as Tropical Disturbance 07. The system was predicted to organise at regular speed and remain quasi-stationary within the next 24 hours and then curve toward the Malagasy coast as a moderate tropical storm. Six hours later, the RSMC La Reunion upgraded the system to Tropical Depression 07. There is a possibility for the system to strengthen into a tropical cyclone if it strengthens fast enough. The next day, the tropical depression was upgraded to Moderate Tropical Storm Fanele and the JTWC upgraded it to Tropical Cyclone 09S. Later that day, Fanele continued to rapidly organise as it strengthened into a severe tropical storm.