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TOPIC: 2004VD17
Blobrana


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Asteroid 2004 VD17
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(144898) 2004VD17 - impactor table 
Object: 144898    

     date         MJD       sigma sigimp   dist ±   width    stretch    p_RE    exp. en.    PS  
   YYYY/MM                                 (RE)       (RE)      RE/sig               MT           
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2102/05/04.894  88922.894  -4.706 0.000    0.51 ±    0.001  2.32E+02  5.64E-08  1.78E-04  -4.91
2104/05/04.372  89653.372  -4.761 0.000    1.00 ±    0.000  4.51E+05  2.23E-11  7.02E-08  -8.33

Based on  974 optical observations (of which   4 are rejected as outliers)
from 2002/02/16.463 to 2009/01/03.407.
Source

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Blobrana


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Posts: 131433
Date:
(144898) 2004 VD17
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Object: 144898    

     date         MJD       sigma sigimp   dist ±   width    stretch    p_RE    exp. en.    PS  
   YYYY/MM                                 (RE)       (RE)      RE/sig               MT           
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2102/05/04.894  88922.894  -4.522 0.000    0.51 ±    0.001  2.36E+02  1.30E-07  4.10E-04  -4.55
2104/05/04.376  89653.376  -4.576 0.000    0.85 ±    0.000  4.59E+05  5.20E-11  1.64E-07  -7.96

Based on  970 optical observations (of which   4 are rejected as outliers)
from 2002/02/16.463 to 2008/11/20.561.
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Blobrana


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RE: 2004VD17
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JPL also has updated its 2004 VD17 risk assessment and lowered it to Torino Scale 1.

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Blobrana


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Spotted on November 27, 2004 VD 17 was identified as rock that potentially crossed Earth's orbit, with a 1 in 3,000 risk of collision on May 4 2102.
Further observations and calculations have prompted the risk of collision on May 4 2102 to be upgraded to slightly less than `1 in 1,000`.

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Blobrana


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New observations from La Silla observatory.
2006/03/01 RA = 12:39:39.105 Dec = -11d 20' 25.31" mag 19

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Blobrana


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The Torino scale value of 2 of 2004VD17, with a possible 2102 impact, (meriting attention from astronomers), is higher than any other asteroid.
It should be noted that the impact probability for 1950 DA is larger, but since this hazard is not realised until 2880, it falls outside the one-century range of the Torino scale.

Apophis (2004 MN4) is currently listed as Torino scale 1, with an impact probability on April 13, 2036, of about 1 part in 5000. Apophis is smaller, with a nominal diameter of 300 m and mass of less than 100 million tons. These are the only two asteroids currently with a Torino Scale listing of greater than 0.

-- Edited by Blobrana at 11:21, 2006-03-02

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Blobrana


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2004 VD17 is estimated to have a diameter of about 580 metres. An asteroid of that size would produce an impact crater about 10 kilometres wide and an earthquake of magnitude 7.4 if it struck land.

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Blobrana


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Based on 735 optical observations (of which 1 are rejected as outliers) from 2004/11/07.385 to 2006/02/25.439, a computed potential collision of asteroid 2004VD17 with the Earth in 2102/05/04.894.
For only the second time in risk monitoring history, 2004 VD17 was raised to a Torino Scale rating of 2.


MIL 2102 May 4.894
NASA 2102 May 4.89
SIT 2102 May 4.89159
SIT 2102 May 4.89003
SIT 2102 May 4.89062
SIT 2102 May 4.89351
SIT 2102 May 4.89648
IW 2102 May 4.89541, distance from the Earth=0.00002477 AU
IW 2102 May 4.89390, 


     date        MJD      sigma sigimp   dist +/-   width    stretch    
   YYYY/MM                               (RE)       (RE)      RE/sig       
    
---------------------------------------------------------------------
2089/05/03.508 84174.508 -2.905 0.000    0.41 +/-    0.000  1.21E+08 
2096/05/03.392 86731.392 -2.808 0.000    0.94 +/-    0.000  7.59E+05 
2102/05/04.894 88922.894  0.189 0.000    0.51 +/-    0.002  1.30E+03 
2104/05/04.420 89653.420 -2.077 0.000    1.08 +/-    0.002  2.79E+04 
2104/05/04.324 89653.324 -1.770 0.000    0.28 +/-    0.000  6.67E+06 
2104/05/04.376 89653.376  0.180 0.000    0.94 +/-    0.000  2.52E+06


The Apollo asteroid 2004VD17 was discovered by the LINEAR (Lincoln Laboratory ETS) search program, in New Mexico on 7 Nov 2004.

Vimpact 21.36 km/s
Vinfinity 18.22 km/s
Absolute Magnitude (H) 18.824
Diameter 0.580 km (0.5 - 1.2 km)
Mass 2.7e+11 kg
Energy 1.5e+04 MT
Orbital period (days) 676.395
Torino Scale (maximum) 2
Perihelion (AU) 0.6202
Aphelion (AU) 2.3958
Miss Distance 0.43 (rEarth)

Current Ephemerides prediction
      Date      Hour        RA            DEC                     
 
 28 Feb 2006 11.400   12 40 25.514  -11 22 47.73  
  1 Mar 2006 11.400   12 39 34.055  -11 20 11.72  
  2 Mar 2006 11.400   12 38 39.134  -11 17 12.01  
  3 Mar 2006 11.400   12 37 40.702  -11 13 47.94  
  4 Mar 2006 11.400   12 36 38.716  -11  9 58.84  
  5 Mar 2006 11.400   12 35 33.132  -11  5 44.04  
  6 Mar 2006 11.400   12 34 23.909  -11  1  2.87  
  7 Mar 2006 11.400   12 33 11.011  -10 55 54.62  
  8 Mar 2006 11.400   12 31 54.404  -10 50 18.62  
  9 Mar 2006 11.400   12 30 34.055  -10 44 14.17  
 10 Mar 2006 11.400   12 29  9.941  -10 37 40.59


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Blobrana


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2004 VD17 is a near-Earth asteroid that was discovered on November 7, 2004 by the NASA-funded LINEAR asteroid survey. The object is roughly 580 metres in diameter and has a low but non-zero probability of impacting Earth within the next 100 years.

It has, since November 22, 2004, been topping the Earth impact hazard list with a Torino Scale value of 1, and current estimates give the asteroid about a 1 in 3,000 chance that it will collide with Earth on May 4, 2102. If that happens, the energy released by the impact would be an estimated 15,000 megatons, and result in sub-continent scale devastation.

2004 VD17 was last observed from the Mauna Kea Observatory on November 13, 2005, and it is expected that further observations in the coming months will greatly improve the orbit estimate and most likely determine whether the asteroid is on impact course with Earth or not.

The 0.5 - 1.2 km sized asteroid 2004 VD17 has just been updated to a Torino Scale of 2.

The 676.395 day orbit is predicted to bring it close to the planet on 2041/11/07.64083



    date        MJD      sigma sigimp   dist +/-   width    stretch    p_RE    exp. en.    PS  
   YYYY/MM                               (RE)       (RE)      RE/sig               MT           
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2096/05/03.421 86731.421 -2.778 0.000    1.17 +/-    0.003  4.19E+04  5.87E-08  8.60E-04  -4.34
2096/05/03.392 86731.392 -2.560 0.000    0.83 +/-    0.000  9.37E+05  3.73E-08  5.46E-04  -4.53
2098/05/03.808 87461.808 -2.874 0.000    0.28 +/-    0.000  1.54E+07  9.73E-10  1.43E-05  -6.13
2102/05/04.894 88922.894  0.803 0.000    0.51 +/-    0.002  1.61E+03  3.78E-04  5.55E+00  -0.55
2104/05/04.421 89653.421 -1.739 0.000    1.06 +/-    0.002  3.46E+04  2.67E-06  3.91E-02  -2.72
2104/05/04.323 89653.323 -1.395 0.000    0.52 +/-    0.000  8.38E+06  4.16E-08  6.10E-04  -4.52
2104/05/04.373 89653.373  0.792 0.000    0.89 +/-    0.000  3.17E+06  1.93E-07  2.84E-03  -3.85



Based on 729 optical observations from 2004/11/07.385 to 2006/02/06.551.

The Virtual Impactor in 2102/05/04.894 in the table above is rated as Torino Scale 2.
The search for VIs has been extended to 2105 to crosscheck the results obtained by Sentry.

                    Impact        Palermo     Torino
                    Probability   Scale       Scale
NEODyS/CLOMON2        0.000378     -0.55        2          
JPL/SENTRY            0.00036      -0.57        1


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