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Blobrana


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Pre-discovery observations of asteroid 2007 WD5, taken on November 8, 2007 have allowed its orbit to be refined and the uncertainties for the late January Mars encounter have been improved. The impact probability resulting from the recent orbit refinement has increased to a surprising 3.9% (about 1 in 25 odds). The uncertainty region during the Mars encounter now extends over 400,000 km along a very narrow ellipsoid that is only 600 km wide. Since the uncertainty region intersects Mars itself, a Mars impact is still possible. However, the most likely scenario is that additional observations of the asteroid will allow the uncertainty region to shrink so that a Mars impact is ruled out. In the unlikely event of an impact, the time would be 2008 January 30 at 10:56 UT (2:56 a.m. PST) with an uncertainty of a few minutes.

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Blobrana


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Astronomers have identified asteroid 2007 WD 5 in archival imagery. With these new observations, scientists at NASA's Near-Earth Object Program Office at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif have refined their trajectory estimates for the asteroid. Based on this latest analysis, the odds for the asteroid impacting Mars on Jan. 30 are now 1-in-25 -- or about 4 percent.

Asteroid 2007 WD5

Animation showing the possible paths of asteroid 2007 WD5. On January 30, 2008, the asteroid may pass through any point seen in the dotted area.
Credit NASA

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Blobrana


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Updated flyby distance from Mars by 2007 WD5 is now 0.000140 AU. (Mars radius = 0.00002268 AU).
Impact probability is now 1:25 for  January 30.49044, 2008.

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Blobrana


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MRO to track possible asteroid impact
New Mexico Tech's Magdalena Ridge Observatory is already making its mark in the annals of astronomy research after being recently tasked by NASA to make detailed observations of an asteroid that is now given a 1 in 75 chance of hitting Mars on January 30.
On Dec. 18, observatory researchers began tracking the asteroid, designated 2007 WD5, with the research facility's 2.4-meter telescope.

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Latitude 33 58 36 S, Longitude 107 11 05

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Blobrana


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The latest estimates indicate the asteroid, 2007 WD5  will miss Mars; although  it will be close  - less than  20,000 km  at  ~ 9:00 UT,  30th January, 2008.

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Blobrana


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The asteroid measures more than 160 feet in diameter is travelling towards Mars at a speed of 30,000 miles per hour, and initial calculations show that it may crash in the equatorial region creating a crater more than one kilometre in diameter.
At the moment, the asteroid is not visible, being blinded by the glare of the moon. Scientists expect it to be visible sometime in the second week of January, the time around which more accurate data on its trajectory would also be available.
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Blobrana


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ASTEROID 2007 WD5 MAY IMPACT MARS



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Blobrana


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Animation (216kb, 300 x 300)

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Blobrana


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Asteroid 2007 WD5



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Blobrana


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A recently discovered asteroid which passed close to the Earth in November, is now headed towards a very close passage by Mars in late January, and there is a small chance that it could hit that planet. The probability of a collision is only 1 chance in 75, but scientists are excited about the possibility. If it happens, the impact would occur on January 30, 2008 at around 10:55 UT (2:55 a.m. PST).

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2007wd5Approe9

Astronomers funded by NASA are monitoring the trajectory of an asteroid estimated to be 164-feet wide that is expected to cross Mars' orbital path early next year. Observations provided by the astronomers and analysed by NASA's Near-Earth Object Office at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif., indicate the object may pass within 30,000 miles of Mars at about 6 a.m. EST on Jan. 30, 2008.

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