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Home -> Astronomy News -> Meteors 2012 -> 209P-ids Meteor Shower
Post Info TOPIC: 209P-ids Meteor Shower
Blobrana


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RE: 209P-ids Meteor Shower
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One Night Only, a New Meteor Shower that May Be Spectacular?

A new meteor shower, the Camelopardalids, will be peaking Friday night/Saturday morning (May 23/24, 2014) just after midnight Pacific time. If you are in the U.S. or southern Canada, you are likely well positioned to see what may (or may not) be a spectacular show. In either case, scientists will learn about a comet's history and you can have a fun night looking at the sky.
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Blobrana


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The Camelopardalids meteor shower peak is predicted for 07:40 UT, 24th May 2014 



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Blobrana


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Camelopardalids meteor shower
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The estimate of level of the shower is based on photometric measurements of the comet. Very few data are currently available (as on Oct. 2014). So far, given the observations, we estimate a ZHR of 100/hr to 400/hr, which is an excellent outburst! But this shower can become an exceptional one. Indeed, given the current orbit of the comet (from JPL HORIZONS ephemerids database), ALL THE TRAILS EJECTED BETWEEN 1803 AND 1924 DO FALL IN THE EARTH PATH IN MAY 2014!!! As a consequence, this shower might as well be a storm. But how to definitely know whether or not it will be a storm?
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Blobrana


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Title: Will Comet 209P/LINEAR Generate the Next Meteor Storm?
Author: Quanzhi Ye, Paul A. Wiegert

Previous studies have suggested that Comet 209P/LINEAR may produce strong meteor activity on Earth on 2014 May 24; however, exact timing and activity level is difficult to estimate due to the limited physical observations of the comet. Here we reanalyze the optical observations of 209P/LINEAR obtained during its 2009 appari- tion. We find that the comet is relatively depleted in dust production, with Af {
ho} at 1 cm level within eight months around its perihelion. This feature suggested that this comet may be currently transitioning from typical comet to a dormant comet. Syndyne simulation shows that the optical cometary tail is dominated by larger particles with {\beta} ~ 0.003. Numerical simulations of the cometary dust trails confirm the arrival of particles on 2014 May 24 from some of the 1798-1979 trails. The nominal radiant is at RA 122 +/- 1 deg, Dec 79 +/- 1 deg (J2000) in the constellation of Camelopardalis. Given that the comet is found to be depleted in dust production, we concluded that a meteor storm (ZHR>=1000) may be unlikely. However, our simulation also shows that the size distribution of the arrived particles is skewed strongly to larger particles. Coupling with the result of syndyne simulation, we think that the event, if detectable, may be dominated by bright meteors. We encourage observers to monitor the expected meteor event as it will provide us with rare direct information on the dynamical history of 209P/LINEAR which is otherwise irretrievably lost.

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Blobrana


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The Earth is expected to encounter a great number of the comet 209P trails in 2014. The main source of activity should become 1898-1919 trails, however some meteors could be produced by the earlier trails of the comet, down to 1763 trail, which is the oldest computed trail, and even earlier. The computed time of maximum activity is May 24, 2014, at 7:21 UT, theoretical radiant is RA=122.8°, Dec=+79.0°.
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