Title: Chaos, diversity, turbulence and sustainable development Author: Jacques C.J. Nihoul Email author(s)
Palaeoclimatic studies and models provide valuable assets for the understanding of the profound changes that the Earth's planet and its planetary envelope risk to undergo in a near future models of sustainable development at decanal to centurial time scales, while feeding on palaeoclimatic data, must take into account both the diversity and the 'turbulence' (sub-window scale fluctuations and shed entropy) to develop series of space-time nested models defined by their time-space spectral window.
An epic drought during the mid-1100s dwarfs any drought previously documented for a region that includes areas of Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming. The six-decade-long drought was remarkable for the absence of very wet years. At the core of the drought was a period of 25 years in which Colorado River flow averaged 15 percent below normal. The new tree-ring-based reconstruction documents the year-by-year natural variability of streamflows in the upper Colorado River basin back to A. D. 762, said the tree-ring scientists from The University of Arizona in Tucson who led the research team. The work extends the continuous tree-ring record of upper Colorado streamflows back seven centuries earlier than previous reconstructions.
Thousands of years ago, Earth's oceans burped twice - releasing great masses of the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide into the air and warming the planet up after the ice age, according to a new study. A shift in deep currents probably caused the oceanic belches about 13,000 and 18,000 years ago, scientists concluded. That may mean today's oceans - which absorb carbon dioxide - are, under some conditions, also capable of releasing the gas.
Volcanoes blamed for prehistoric global warming Scientists say eruptions set off a chain reaction, causing a massive release of carbon that super-heated Earth. Scientists believe they have solved the mystery of what caused the most rapid global warming in known geologic history, a cataclysmic temperature spike 55 million years ago driven by concentrations of greenhouse gases hundreds of times greater than today. The culprit, the researchers reported Thursday in the journal Science, was a series of volcanic eruptions that set off a chain reaction releasing massive amounts of carbon into the atmosphere. The eruptions occurred on the rift between two continental plates as Greenland and Europe separated. In 10,000 years a blip in Earth's history the polar seas turned into tropical baths, deep-sea microorganisms went extinct, and mammals migrated poleward as their habitats warmed. It took about 200,000 years for the atmospheric carbon to transfer to the deep ocean, allowing the planet to cool. The event, known as the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum, was discovered in the early 1990s. Since then, scientists have studied it to better predict how Earth will respond to the current buildup of greenhouse gases.
The Arctic was not the ice-capped frigid landscape as we know it today, but was balmy, much like Florida, with animals resembling hippopotamuses and crocodiles sharing the terrain with other life forms, some 55 million years ago.
"The climate here about 55 million years ago was more like that of Florida. Where we are now was once a temperate rainforest" - Appy Sluijs, an expert in ancient ecology at Utrecht University in the Netherlands.
He said fossil evidence of a pantodont, a plant-eating hippopotamus-like creature weighing about 400 kilograms found on an Arctic island, together with other evidence of sequoia-type trees and crocodile-like beasts in the Arctic millions of years ago, were adding to the growing evidence that the Arctic had a tropical climate.
Scientists at Queens University Belfast have uncovered evidence that stoats survived in Ireland at the coldest point of the last Ice Age, 23,500 years ago. The research has revealed that despite few animals or plants surviving the millennia of freezing cold and ice, the Irish stoats had real staying power. The Irish lineage of these small carnivores that eat mice, rabbits and birds is unique according to the research. The scientists reached their conclusions by studying the wiry mammals DNA collected from museum collections and gamekeepers.
These tenacious carnivores probably survived the extreme cold at the peak of the last Ice Age by living under the snow and eating lemmings, just as they do in Greenland today - Dr Robbie McDonald, Manager of Quercus at Queens.
While researching the bottom of the world, Jeffrey Geddes made a discovery about sea ice formation that has the potential to provide scientists with another piece of the climate-change puzzle. As part of a research project on the St. George campus last summer, Geddes, an undergraduate science student, was analysing data supplied by a NASA satellite when he detected a previously unknown multi-year ice formation cycle in Antarcticas Cosmonaut Sea. Climate scientists and researchers study sea ice and its formation patterns in the polar regions because sea ice, or the lack of it, affects local climates and potentially impacts the global weather system. Geddes determined that large bodies of water surrounded by ice on three sides known as embayments tend to occur every three years in the Cosmonaut Sea.
ABRUPT CLIMATE CHANGE FAR MORE COMMON THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT
MADISON - It came on quickly and then lasted nearly two decades, eventually killing more than one million people and affecting 50 million more. All of this makes the Sahel drought, which first struck West Africa in the late 1960s, the most notorious example of an abrupt climatic shift during the last century. Dramatic as this single event was, University of Wisconsin-Madison researchers have now uncovered 29 other regions worldwide that endured similarly precipitous climatic changes during the 20th century - far more than scientists previously thought. Their study publishes today (March 30) in the online edition of Geophysical Research Letters. The work represents the first systematic survey of abrupt climate changes that have occurred in recent history, says postdoctoral researcher Gemma Narisma, who led the study with professor Jonathan Foley, director of the UW-Madison Centre for Sustainability and the Global Environment in the Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies. The National Academies' National Research Council has called for more research on abrupt climate change, warning that it's more likely to happen as global temperatures rise and humans continue to alter the environment.
"This study is important, because previous work largely focused on ancient climates or theoretical changes in future climates. But our work here is showing that abrupt climatic changes are real, are with us today, and that they have major impacts on human societies" - Jonathan Foley.
By identifying diverse regions around the globe where rapid climatic shifts have taken place, the study opens up new opportunities for understanding why these changes happen and what makes areas susceptible to them. A range of factors is likely involved, including human activities, such as deforestation and land degradation, and natural phenomena, like sea surface temperatures. The work might also lead to interventions that would make systems less vulnerable to sudden climate change. Unlike other research studies, which have focused on sudden shifts in ancient climates or possible future changes, Narisma's survey of abrupt climate change during the past 100 years offers something else: a chance to learn how people coped.
"We're interested in the human side mainly. In the more recent history, you really get to see what the impacts were on the current society, and that gives you an idea of the potential impacts in the future, as well" - Gemma Narisma.
Abrupt climate change is generally known as a quick and drastic shift in climate that makes it difficult for society and the environment to adapt. In the study, Narisma and her colleagues defined it as a drop in rainfall to levels at least five percent below the normal average, which took much less time to settle in than the drought's total length. They also stipulated that drought conditions had to last at least five years.
"Since these changes are a switch to a new state - the drought state - the tendency is for them to persist for awhile. It's the combination of abruptness and persistence that gives these events the potential to have serious consequences" - Gemma Narisma.
The scientists pored over precipitation records from 1901 to 2000 and then used wavelet analysis and statistical techniques to pinpoint climate shifts matching their criteria. In addition to familiar events, such as the Sahel drought and the Dust Bowl in the Midwestern United States, they detected lesser-known droughts in virtually all corners of the globe, including Europe, North America, Australia, China, the former Soviet Union, the Middle East, Africa, India and Bangladesh. Although diverse geographically, the 30 affected regions were mostly arid or semi-arid, says Narisma, a result consistent with other modelling studies. Most saw rainfall decrease by 10 percent or more below normal levels, and in all cases drought lasted for at least 10 years. Why is abrupt climate change of such concern today? Narisma thinks much of it traces back to the tragedy in the Sahel, whose causes - and terrible consequences - have been well documented.
"The Sahel and the Dust Bowl had huge impacts. But we thought that before we can even begin to analyse the mechanisms behind these abrupt changes or their potential impacts, we had to ask ourselves, 'Are there other regions where abrupt changes have occurred?' We think this study is a major first step in answering these questions" - Gemma Narisma.
The paper's other authors are Rachel Licker of the Nelson Institute and Navin Ramankutty of McGill University in Montreal, Canada
New calculations show that sensitivity of Earths climate to changes in the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide (CO2) has been consistent for the last 420 million years, according to an article in Nature by geologists at Yale and Wesleyan Universities. A popular predictor of future climate sensitivity is the change in global temperature produced by each doubling of CO2 in the atmosphere. This study confirms that in the Earths past 420 million years, each doubling of atmospheric CO2 translates to an average global temperature increase of about 3° Celsius, or 5° Fahrenheit. According to the authors, since there has continuously been life on the planet over this time span, there must be an ongoing balance between CO2 entering and leaving the atmosphere from the rocks and waters at Earths surface. Their simulations examined a wide span of possible relationships between atmospheric CO2 and temperature and the likelihood they could have occurred based on proxy data from geological samples.
Scientists from the NIOZ Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research obtained for the first time a detailed temperature record for tropical central Africa over the past 25,000 years. They did this in cooperation with a German colleague from the University of Bremen, The scientists developed an entirely new method to reconstruct the history of land temperatures based on the molecular fossils of soil bacteria. They applied the method to a marine sediment core taken in the outflow of the Congo River. This core contained eroded land material and microfossils from marine algae. The results show that the land environment of tropical Africa was cooled more than the adjacent Atlantic Ocean during the last ice-age. This large temperature difference between land and ocean surface resulted in drier conditions compared to the current situation, which favours the growth of a lush rainforest. These findings provide further insight in natural variations in climate and the possible consequences of a warming earth on precipitation in central Africa. The results will be published in this week's issue of 'Science'. One of the techniques currently used to estimate past sea surface temperatures, is based on organic molecules from algae growing in the surface layer of the Ocean. These organisms adapt the molecular composition of their cell membranes to ambient temperature to maintain constant physiological properties. When such molecules sink to the sea floor and are buried in sediments where oxygen does not penetrate, they can be preserved for thousands of years. The ratios between the different molecules from the algal cell membrane can be used to approximate the past temperature of the sea surface. These techniques are therefore called 'proxies'.