“We are comfortable with the conclusion that Cosmos 1 never made it to orbit because the launch vehicle failed. But we are not comfortable with the reason it happened: the Volna selected for our payload had not been upgraded to correct a known failure mode. We will not fly on a Volna again. We’ve learned that lesson—and it was certainly a hard one. We are now ready to find a new launch vehicle, establish better launch vehicle interfaces, and try again to fly the first solar sail spacecraft.”
The planetary society is planning another shot at launching a solar sail.
That is if they can gather the funds from their members and citizens around the world. Russian and American experts are confident they can rebuild the spacecraft and find a new launch vehicle. The Planetary society still has spare parts for all the spacecraft components.
The launch of the Volna on 21 June at 11:46 pm local time from the Barents Sea is shown here. The video ends about 20 seconds after launch from the submarine Borisoglebsk, and 63 seconds before the first stage burn ended prematurely, causing Cosmos 1 to be lost. The rocket manufacturer says that after the first-stage shutdown, a fail-safe mechanism would have prevented the later stages from separating and firing. They claim the entire rocket and its spacecraft payload fell into the Barents Sea, somewhere east of the launch area but west of the Novaye Zemlya archipelago.
However, a signal received at the Petropavlovsk, Kamchatka ground station seems to indicate that the fourth-stage orbit-insertion motor fired, and later signals recorded at Majuro, Marshall Islands and Panska Ves, Czech Republic ground stations also seem to be from the Cosmos 1 spacecraft. If these signals are confirmed, they would indicate that Cosmos 1 reached orbit. Mission analysts at the Space Research Institute in Moscow and at The Planetary Society are currently analyzing and testing the measured signals to determine if they are really from the spacecraft.
It is disappointing that the solar sail blades never had a chance to unfurl, let alone prove that a spacecraft can ride on the sun's rays through space. But there certainly was something charming about the society staff, funders and media sitting in the living room of the society's Greene & Greene digs, listening for confirmation over a telephone line from Moscow that Cosmos had reached orbit. The whole mission had the feel of something from another, simpler time. With Mission Operations in Moscow nicknamed "MOM' and Project Operations in Pasadena dubbed "POP,' project personnel took advantage of the fitting "mom and pop mission' pun. POP was nothing more than a loft space in a converted barn called "the carriage house' behind The Planetary Society's main building, where staff worked on three computers. Ann Druyan, the mission's spiritual leader and CEO of the main funder, Cosmos Studios, said, "there's something incredibly refreshing about how modest and homemade,' the mission was, despite the fact that it was "trying to do something so incredibly bold.' And then there was Bill Nye (the Science Guy), the society's vice president, complete with red bow tie, who told reporters, "If this spacecraft has failed, I will at least redouble my efforts on the next mission. ... We have the opportunity to change the world.'
Officials in charge of the Russian rocket that failed during launch of the Cosmos 1 solar sail spacecraft believe that the booster's stages never separated, the project director said in a statement.
The officials believe the rocket went down near Novaya Zemlya, an archipelago that separates the Barents Sea from the Kara Sea, Louis D. Friedman said in a statement from Moscow posted on the Web site of The Planetary Society
He attributed the information to the Makeev Rocket Design Bureau, which was in charge of the three-stage Volna rocket, a three-stage, converted missile launched by a Russian submarine under the Barents Sea on Tuesday. Russian authorities have said the booster failed during the first-stage firing, 83 seconds into flight, but there were no details on what the failure entailed.
Cosmos 1 carried eight Mylar sails that were to be unfolded in orbit to try to demonstrate that a spacecraft could be propelled by the pressure of sunlight. Although Russian officials said the first-stage failure prevented Cosmos 1 from reaching orbit, tracking stations at several points around the globe recorded weak signals that Planetary Society team members said seemed to have come from Cosmos 1, suggesting it somehow reached space but was in the wrong orbit. Mission officials gave that a very low probability, but were continuing to analyze the tracking station data.
"We are hopeful of having more definitive results from their analysis in the next few days," Friedman wrote in the statement.
Friedman is executive director of The Planetary Society, which he co-founded in 1980 with the late astronomer Carl Sagan and former Jet Propulsion Laboratory director Bruce Murray. The space-interest group says it has members in 125 countries.
Each blade had been designed to turn to reflect sunlight in different directions so that the craft could “tack,” much like a sailboat in the wind.
Cosmos 1 is far from the first satellite to be shot into space and then disappear while teasing ground observers for days or weeks.
A top-secret U.S. Navy project called "Notsnik" fired small satellites spaceward from airplanes in 1958, and at least one launch is widely believed to have made it into orbit, based on sporadic radio contacts. Space radar tracking was in its infancy, and no independent confirmation was ever possible.
The first Air Force "Discoverer" satellite in 1959 is still officially listed as having achieved orbit; but, it was all a myth. The Air Force had already issued a press release stating that Discoverer 1 was in orbit, a couple of junior officers were ordered to prove that the spacecraft was indeed in orbit. Over the next few days, they looked at information taken from several listening sites around the world, trying to find data that confirmed the vehicle's signals had been detected. “They then reported to their superiors that Discoverer 1 was indeed in orbit. But they never really believed it.” - Dwayne Day, historian and space policy expert. The officers privately concluded that the rocket didn't have enough power to reach orbit, and the spacecraft probably crashed into Antarctica.
In 1995, the Russian-built, German-funded Express 1 satellite was launched on a Japanese rocket, but then disappeared. It actually did circle Earth several times before its recoverable capsule landed in northern Ghana. Since nobody was looking for it, the local villagers stored it and sent out inquiries, and when the owners finally came to pick it up, they were presented with a storage fee large enough to build the village a new schoolhouse. In 1999, Russia launched a similar experiment with a sun-reflecting device from its Mir space station, but the deployment mechanism jammed and the device burned up in the atmosphere. In 2001, Russia tried again, but the device failed to separate from the booster and burned in the atmosphere.
The botched launch of the solar vehicle was the second failure of a Russian booster rocket in just one day. Earlier Tuesday, the Molniya-M rocket carrying a military communications satellite failed shortly after its lift-off from a northern launch pad and fell over Siberia.
Another experimental spacecraft, the European Space Agency's Demonstrator-2R, is to be launched on a Russian Volna rocket next month. The mission will test technologies for future inflatable re-entry vehicles. It was not immediately clear whether the apparent failure of Cosmos 1 would hold up the Demonstrator-2R’s launch.
With the failure of Cosmos 1 virtually certain, the team members that have been staffing Project Operations Pasadena have elected to return to their homes.
Thanks to the Internet, if our spacecraft miraculously reappears, each of us will still be able to keep watch over the mission from our individual remote locations. Greg returns to Berkeley, Jim and Brent to Utah, and Paul to his usual life at the Jet Propulsion Lab, just up the valley from Pasadena. Lou will be returning from Moscow in a couple of days. I took off for home a couple of hours ago in order to begin to catch up on sleep.
The team may be scattering, but it's not over. The search for the spacecraft continues. The search continues in the present, as several observatories have offered to try to look for a signal from the spacecraft. (If you, too, have a spare observatory, feel free to search at a frequency of 401.5275 Hz, but I am afraid that I can't offer any advice on where to point your antenna.) The search also continues into the past, as Strategic Command is working through its "unknown objects bucket" (as Jim called it this morning) to find where the spacecraft and its launch vehicle ended up.
At the Society, we're already talking about what to do next. A few hours ago, Bill Nye -- the Science Guy, and also the Vice-President of The Planetary Society -- asked all of the staff to gather together in the living room of the 100-year-old house in which we work. He opened and poured champagne for all of us, and we raised several toasts. We toasted Cosmos 1, first of all; it was an audacious dream, that we arrogantly compared to the flight of the Wright Brothers. We toasted Lou Friedman in absentia, for whom it must have been a pretty rough week. We toasted the staff and volunteers of the Society, for all the work it's taken to bring Cosmos 1 to the world. We toasted Ann Druyan, the chief sponsor of Cosmos 1, for making it possible, and for being the mission's spiritual leader. We toasted our members, for their devotion to our cause and their support. Finally, we toasted: Cosmos 2? Many of our members are telling us they're ready to try again. We can't say whether or not we'll try again with this mission until we find out what really happened. But we'll certainly stay in the business, and try more audacious things, like the Solar Sail, Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence, Mars airplanes, or Venus balloons we've advocated in the past.
Spacecraft signals in the Telemetry recorded at the tracking stations in Petropavlovsk, Kamchatka and Majuro, Marshall Islands seem to have been found. A review of data received at the tracking station in Panska Ves, Czech Republic also appears to indicate a spacecraft signal. If confirmed, these data will indicate that Cosmos 1 made it to orbit.
If the spacecraft made it to orbit, its autonomous program might be working, and after 4 days the sails could automatically deploy. While the chances of this are very small, the Planetary Society encourages observers to see if the sail can be seen after that time.
The Russian navy's Northern Fleet announced Wednesday the loss of Cosmos 1. Another satellite that was monitoring the launch, "didn't establish contact, which signifies its loss" - Igor Dygalo, spokesman for the Northern Fleet.
The loss of Cosmos 1 was due to the failure of part of the Volna carrier that was expected to take the spacecraft into orbit after its launch from a submarine in the Barents Sea.
"Due to the spontaneous failure of the motor of the first part of the Volna missile carrier at the 83rd second of the launch, the unique device 'solar sail' did not reach its orbit" - Roskosmos.
Russia's ITAR-TASS news agency cited a senior source involved in the project as saying the spacecraft had probably come down somewhere near New Zealand.
However, the Planetary Society, said it was too early to write off the launch, as signals had been picked up from Cosmos 1, albeit not in the correct orbit.
"We feel reasonably confident that what we saw was real signal... what this means is that we are probably in orbit, but it's not the orbit that we thought it was"
Signals from Cosmos 1 were meant to reach Earth once the craft reached orbit about an hour from its launch at 19:46 GMT on Monday.
Scientists said they may have detected signals from the world's first solar sail spacecraft, but cautioned that it could take hours or days to figure out exactly where the Cosmos 1 is travelling.
The signals were picked up late Tuesday after an all-day search for the spacecraft, which had suddenly stopped communicating after its launch from a Russian submarine.
"It's good news because we are in orbit - very likely in orbit" - Bruce Murray, co-founder of The Planetary Society.
The signals could indicate that the spacecraft went into a different orbit than expected, meaning scientists will have to scan the heavens until they find it.
"This kind of search procedure can take hours to days" -Jim Cantrell, mission official.